aSOPR Retest Could Signal BTC Market Regime Shift

• The Bitcoin Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) is retesting the historical bull-bear junction.
• A successful retest of the 1.0 level could signal a regime shift in the BTC market.
• The 7-day EMA value of the metric has sharply risen recently and is approaching the 1.0 level.

The Bitcoin Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) is an indicator used to measure whether Bitcoin investors are selling their coins at a profit or a loss. According to the latest weekly report from Glassnode, the aSOPR is currently doing another retest of the 1.0 level, which is a historical bull-bear junction. This suggests that a meaningful regime shift could be on the horizon.

The aSOPR is a modified version of the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), which is used to measure the relative profitability of Bitcoin holders. When the value of this metric is greater than 1, it means that the average holder in the market is moving coins at a profit. On the other hand, values below the threshold imply that the overall market is realizing a loss. A value of exactly 1 implies that investors are just breaking even on their selling right now.

Glassnode’s chart of the 7-day exponential moving average (EMA) Bitcoin aSOPR over the last couple of years shows that the metric has sharply risen in recent days and is now approaching the 1.0 level. If the aSOPR successfully retests this level, it would suggest that a regime shift is underway in the BTC market. This shift could potentially cause a significant impact on the prices of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in the coming weeks and months.

It will be interesting to see whether the aSOPR breaks through the 1.0 level or not. If it does, it could mean that more investors are moving coins at a profit, which would be a positive sign for the market. On the other hand, if the metric fails to break through the 1.0 level, it could mean that the market is still in a bearish state and investors are still realizing losses from their Bitcoin holdings. Either way, it will be interesting to monitor the development of the aSOPR in the coming weeks and see how it affects the market.